After the Arab Spring Part 3 – the outlook for car markets in the GCC

At the time,¬† the GCC markets seemed largely¬†unaffected by the Arab Spring, apparently insulated by oil wealth and strong sovereign wealth funds, whose proceeds need only be shared among a small population. But, if you take a closer look there are two ‘blocs’ of states within the GCC measured by income per capita: the rich, UAE, Qatar and Kuwait; and the ‘relatively poor’ – Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Oman. Those differences have great implications as each country deals with three important – and region-wide- market¬†undercurrents: youth unemployment and renewed emphasis on employment nationalization programmes, accelerating modernization of the transport infrastructure and a changing landscape for personal consumer credit. Each will have an impact on the size and shape of GCC car markets. Moreover, the medium-term, region-wide political effects of the Arab Spring were also overlooked: the power struggle between Saudi Arabia and Iran; the split within the GCC over Qatar’s position; the struggle to control the entrance to the Red Sea at the Bab Al Mandab, which has underpinned the conflict in Yemen.

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