UK and Russia Car Market Round-Up – to June 2009

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UK PC Registrations—Rolling 12 Months

UK PC Market YTD June 2009

UK PC Market YTD June 2009

Up to the end of June 2009, UK Passenger New Car Registrations were down 574,917 units, around 24%. More importantly, June registrations showed signs of a significant reduction in the pace of decline. Since July 2008, double-digit percentage losses have been recorded. Between September 2008 and April 2009, the fall in the market was between 20% – 30% compared to the same month the year before. However, in June 2009 the decline rate abated to at around 15%. Many commentators suggest that this is The impact of the UK Scrappage Scheme  – launched 18th May, which may have contributed some 10,000+ units, but the market was up 35,000 units against the rolling trend. However, June is usually 15% up on May in any case. This suggests normal seasonal factors are at work, rather than the vaunted ‘green shoots of recovery’. Let’s all watch the trend..

Russia Passenger Car Registrations

Russia PC Market YTD June 2008 vs. 2009

Russia PC Market YTD June 2008 vs. 2009

In the first six months of 2009 the Russian market for Cars and Light Vans has exhibited increasing stress, as , overwhelmed by dismal economic conditions.  To June YTD the market has been halved as auto-loan interest rates sky-rocketed, higher import tariffs were applied and manufacturer’s price increases too effect. In Russia commercial banks are offering car loans in  US$ at 13% and in Roubles at 30%. In addition the same two factors impacting on the US and European markets – unemployment and declining expectations of wage rises are diverting disposable income to more important priorities. The outlook remains uncertain as well.

Russia PC Markey Evolution by month YTD June 2008 vs. 2009

Russia PC Markey Evolution by month YTD June 2008 vs. 2009

The Rouble is expected to decline 40% vs. the US$ in 2009, dampening demand for foreign cars and encouraging downsizing among those  who buy.

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